According to the GAO, “the Air Force has not yet developed a transition risk management plan, a leading project planning practice.” The report states that a detailed plan would provide “an organized, methodical way to identify, assess, and respond to the myriad risks, and better position the Air Force for a successful transition from Minuteman III to Sentinel.”
The Air Force has created an overarching transition strategy and a site transition plan for F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming, the first scheduled to convert. However, the GAO found that no schedule has been set for the construction of a Sentinel test facility, which is needed early in the process to revise policy and instructions for security forces.
Delays in the Sentinel programme mean that Minuteman III must remain in service longer than expected. “Air Force officials are assessing options to potentially operate Minuteman III through 2050,” the report notes, warning that extended operation poses sustainment risks. Addressing such risks in a transition risk management plan would help ensure the ICBM system continues to meet deterrent requirements.
The report is a public version of a classified assessment issued in April 2025, with some information omitted for sensitivity. It was conducted under a provision in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024, requiring GAO to review Air Force planning for the ICBM transition.
GAO has made six recommendations, including the development of a risk management plan addressing Minuteman III sustainment risks and the establishment of a test facility schedule. The Department of Defense concurred with all six recommendations.
