According to this analysis, Iran will very soon be capable of launching an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) that can reach the U.S., carrying a warhead weighing hundreds of kg. The analysis was written by Tal Inbar, an Israeli senior defence analyst.
The satellite was launched on January 20. The launcher put ‘Suraya,’ a ~50 kg satellite, into a LEO of 750 km perigee and an inclination of 64.51°.
Inbar points to the rear-stabilized small fins of the launcher that improve static stability during the 1st stage boost and probably – roll control.
According to the Israeli analyst, based on the available open-source information, the three-stage QAEM-100 launcher might serve as a prototype of an Iranian ICBM.
QAEM-100 is launched from a mobile launcher – TEL.
The missile configuration is a compact 3-stage missile.
Iran, according to Inbar, solved all separations and ignition phases.
“Modifying QAEM-100 into an ICBM will require some additional work: Development of an operational Reentry Vehicle (RV), a small 4th stage for precise energy maneuver, relying on GNSS data and/or a star tracker,”
According to Inbar, in the absence of dimensions or weight breakdown, experts can hardly perform any quantitative calculation or simulation.
The Iranians claim that they have achieved a 750 km orbit with a 50 kg (option for 80 kg) satellite.
“If this was done in a direct ascent method, then it might support assessments that a similar missile can carry an RV of about half a ton to intercontinental ranges.”
