The paper, titled “A Budget for a Fifth Year of War: Military Spending in Russia’s Budget for 2026,” was authored by Professor Julian Cooper. It assesses the evolution of Russia’s federal budget allocations for defence and related war activities over recent years.
The analysis reviews the drafting of Russia’s 2026–2028 budget alongside amendments to the 2025 budget. It outlines key components of military and war-related spending, offering updated estimates for 2022–2025 and an initial projection for 2026.
The report also examines broader economic measures, including tighter monetary policy introduced in 2025 to curb inflation. It highlights changes in financial management within the Ministry of Defence, including efforts to reduce costs in arms procurement.
According to the findings, economic pressures that became increasingly visible in 2025 are unlikely to bring an end to the conflict in Ukraine. The paper notes that external factors, including the economic effects of the recent Iran war, could influence Russia’s financial position.
Higher oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict are expected to ease pressure on Russia’s budget in the near term. This development may help sustain military spending despite earlier signs of economic strain.
The publication comes ahead of SIPRI’s annual update of its Military Expenditure Database, scheduled for release on 27 April. The database is regarded as one of the most comprehensive and consistent publicly available sources on global military spending.
Read more: Preparing for a Fourth Year of War: Military Spending in Russia’s Budget for 2025.
