According to Ukrainian estimates, the annual production of artillery ammunition in Russia is set to rise by 700,000 units in 2024. Current production levels are believed to be at 3.8 million units of various calibers, including artillery shells of 100mm, 122mm, 152mm, and rockets of 122mm and 22 mm. By the end of the year, this figure is expected to reach 4.5 million units annually. The increase is primarily anticipated in the 122mm and 152mm caliber shells, with current production of these calibers at 2 million units annually. However, some sources suggest the actual scale of production might be lower.
The pace of artillery ammunition production in Russia is notably higher than in Western countries, which are expected to reach a combined annual production of approximately 2.5 million units of ammunition next year. One of the reasons for this disparity is that, unlike the West, Russia has not transitioned its economy to wartime production, leading to a significantly slower increase in production rates.
Despite the increasing production of ammunition, reports indicate that it does not meet the needs of Russian troops involved in the invasion of Ukraine. Consequently, Moscow has also turned to alternative sources of ammunition, including stocks from Iran and North Korea, the latter being noted for the low quality of its ammunition, which leads to higher wear and tear on artillery systems.
Ukrainian media have reported issues with Russia’s mass production of barrels for artillery systems. The intense rate of fire during combat operations leads to rapid wear, and the industry struggles to meet the high demand for replacements.
Despite these challenges, Russia still maintains a considerable artillery advantage over Ukraine. This disparity is further exacerbated by the US’s decision-making paralysis regarding further military aid funding, leaving Ukraine at a significant disadvantage.
