Tabor, the service’s deputy chief of staff for plans and programs, discussed the projections at an October 20 Pentagon media roundtable. They come from a fighter force structure report submitted to Congress on October 16 that the Air Force did not release in full to reporters.
The report identifies a requirement for 1,509 combat-coded fighters by 2035, compared with an estimated 1,271 in 2026. That is also 140 aircraft above the previous report’s 2030 target, with the increase spread across F-35s, F-15EXs and F-47s.
The fiscal 2027 budget request proposes buying 38 F-35s and 24 F-15EXs. Those 62 aircraft fall short of the 72 annual fighter purchases Air Force leaders have said are needed to replace retiring jets and modernize the fleet.
Funding for 14 of the F-35s depends on $2.34 billion sought through budget reconciliation. Without it, the Air Force could shift money from other programs or defer the aircraft purchases until 2028.
“We just lose 14 times [an] F-35’s worth of other capabilities that we were planning on,” Tabor said of redirecting existing funds. Delaying purchases would instead put the service further behind its fighter fleet goals.
“It is really imperative that we get the resourcing we need in order to modernize the Air Force the way we want it to be,” he said. “We need it all.”
Tabor said purchases could increase over time to meet the service’s requirements. That would depend on Lockheed Martin and Boeing producing enough aircraft on schedule.
“The question is, can industry produce at those levels?” he said. “They’ve assured us that they can, and we believe them, but we also actually need to see it manifest.”
The Air Force is also pursuing congressional approval for multiyear F-35 and F-15EX procurement agreements. Tabor said longer commitments could give manufacturers the financial stability needed to expand and sustain production.
Under the projected 2035 mix, F-22s and F-47s would together account for about 20% of the fleet as the F-47 replaces the Raptor. F-15 variants and F-16s would each represent roughly another 20%.
The estimates reflect updated assessments of combatant commanders’ requirements and are subject to change. Tabor said the analysis began before combat operations against Iran earlier this year and was not driven by that conflict.
The Air Force’s goal of fielding 500 Collaborative Combat Aircraft by 2032 has not yet reduced its projected requirement for manned fighters. Tabor said the autonomous aircraft’s rapidly advancing capabilities were expected to influence future force structure reports.
Source: Air & Space Forces Magazine.
