The assessment describes weapons capable of jamming communications, disrupting ground-control networks and damaging or destroying spacecraft. U.S. forces depend on space systems for missile warning, tracking, navigation, logistics and secure communications.
“China is our pacing threat, but Russia is our acute threat,” said Capt. Amy R. Padilla, branch chief for Intelligence Plans and Programs within SSC’s Intelligence Directorate. “Based on what we know about these two countries, there’s a high likelihood that should they achieve space superiority or space supremacy, it will severely limit the capabilities we have in space.”
China’s funding, experimentation and launch activity put it closer than Russia to challenging U.S. space superiority, according to SSC. The command said China’s on-orbit presence had increased by 667% over the past decade to more than 1,300 satellites.
Between January and November 2025, China conducted 70 launches carrying 319 payloads. It also uses at least 10 satellites for on-orbit space situational awareness, supplementing ground-based systems that track and identify objects.
“They have significant funding and more experimentation and are much closer to reaching their goal of space superiority than Russia,” said Alex Schiller, SSC’s Intelligence Integration lead. The assessment said Beijing regards space as essential to economic modernization and military operations.
China destroyed a defunct weather satellite with a ground-based missile in 2007. SSC said it now has an operational anti-satellite system intended to target low Earth orbit and is believed to be pursuing weapons capable of reaching geosynchronous orbit.
Russia continues to research, test and deploy counterspace systems despite funding shortages, international isolation and technological decline, SSC said. The command described those efforts as an attempt to exploit U.S. military dependence on space.
Russia demonstrated a destructive anti-satellite capability in November 2021 by striking its defunct Cosmos 1408 satellite with a PL-19 Nudol missile. The resulting debris forced astronauts and cosmonauts aboard the International Space Station to take emergency shelter.
SSC said Russia is also developing a satellite designed to carry a nuclear weapon for an anti-satellite role. Both Russia and China have deployed satellites capable of complex maneuvers and close approaches to other spacecraft.
“Moscow has repeatedly said that quasi-civilian commercial satellites used for military purposes may become very legitimate targets for retaliation,” Padilla said. The warning concerns commercial systems as well as military-owned spacecraft.
Attacks do not have to destroy a satellite to interrupt its services. Jamming, spoofing and cyber intrusions can affect spacecraft, communications links and the computers used to control them.
SSC also identified lasers, high-powered microwaves and orbital weapons among the threats. Their effects can be temporary or permanent, while a high-altitude nuclear detonation could expose satellites to destructive radiation.
The economic consequences could extend to transportation, financial transactions and agriculture. SSC cited an Office of Space Commerce study estimating that a GPS outage could cost $1 billion a day, or as much as $45 billion over 30 days during important planting periods.
SSC said the United States has on-orbit space control weapons capable of defending the joint force against hostile actions. The Space Force is also introducing anti-jamming technology and protective software while shortening the time needed to prepare satellites for launch.
Distributing capabilities across larger constellations reduces dependence on individual spacecraft. If one satellite is attacked or fails, information and communications can be routed through others.
Commercial partnerships and cooperation with foreign allies support that effort. SSC said U.S. military space operations comply with international law, including the Outer Space Treaty and the Law of Armed Conflict.
