CSIS said it could take three or more years to replace Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense missile systems and Patriot air defense interceptor missiles. The analysis said all three systems were heavily used during the conflict.
Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles and Precision Strike Missiles were also used heavily, according to CSIS. The report estimated that replacing those weapons could take several months to a year.
Standard Missiles, including SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors, were not used as heavily during the war. However, CSIS said rebuilding U.S. inventories of those weapons to prewar levels could still take about two years.
“The Trump administration understands the urgency. Large munitions procurement in the president’s $1.5 trillion FY 2027 defense budget reflects these magazine depth concerns,” CSIS wrote in its analysis.
“A war supplemental for additional munitions funds is expected as the DOD seeks to replace what was expended in Operation Epic Fury and then build inventories above the prewar levels. The administration has also signed a series of framework agreements with industry to expand munitions production capacity, which could expedite future deliveries,” the report noted.
CSIS said the United States must also continue meeting weapons orders from allies and partners. Ukraine still needs Patriot missiles for defense against Russia, while the United States remains positioned to support 17 other countries that use the interceptor.
The Patriot system is not the only area of concern for the administration, according to the analysis. CSIS said more than 1,000 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles were used during the Iran war, while the United States received 207 deliveries of the weapon in 2026.
The Trump administration has requested 785 Tomahawk missiles for fiscal 2027. The missiles are long-range, all-weather, subsonic cruise missiles used primarily by the Navy.
CSIS said Tomahawk deliveries were resequenced to “prioritize U.S. needs over those of allies and partners.” The report said earlier budget documents had shown no deliveries to the United States between August 2023 and April 2027.
“Previous years’ budget documents projected zero deliveries to the United States between August 2023 and April 2027, after which missiles purchased in FY 2021 would begin to arrive,” CSIS wrote.
“Updated schedules in the FY 2027 materials show earlier orders already being delivered, with FY 2025 procurement scheduled for delivery throughout 2026,” the analysis says.
The report said the United States used 1,100 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles and received 484 deliveries of the missile in 2026. The administration has requested 821 JASSMs in the next fiscal cycle.
CSIS said the White House is planning to fund expedited orders for a wide range of weapons considered important to U.S. stockpiles. However, the analysis said the main constraint is time rather than money.
“It takes time to expand production capacity and to build these complex systems. Thus, there will be a window of vulnerability for several years until inventories return to their previous levels and another several years before they get to the levels that war planners desire,” the CSIS analysis says.
“The DOD will need to make plans for dealing with this gap. Some munitions could be substituted, but these carry tradeoffs. Alternative ground attack munitions, for example, are short- or medium-range and increase vulnerability of the launch platforms. Alternative counter-drone systems are expensive,” it continues.
The analysis said U.S. military operations in Iran and Venezuela showed what researchers described as “great skill.” It also said there is hope China will avoid starting a war given its poor performance in the 1979 Sino-Vietnam War.
“That difference in experience may preserve deterrence until munitions inventories are restored,” the analysis concludes.
Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
