According to an analysis by Romanian economist Cristian Socol, cited by Romanian media outlet national.ro, procurement linked to SAFE could generate substantial economic benefits for countries such as Germany and France. Socol estimates that contracts directed towards Germany could contribute up to €8.5 billion to German gross domestic product and support around 33,600 jobs, while French-linked procurement could generate approximately €1.8 billion in economic activity and create roughly 8,800 jobs.
The analysis has intensified debate over the structure of Europe’s defence market, with critics questioning whether Romania is financing industrial growth abroad rather than strengthening its own production base. Beyond manufacturing benefits, analysts also argue that major international investment funds holding stakes in European defence firms may profit from both rising defence-sector valuations and Romania’s long-term debt servicing obligations.
“The largest gains may ultimately go to major investment funds, both as shareholders in defence companies and as buyers of European debt instruments financing the SAFE programme,” Socol noted.
Questions over the economic rationale of the programme have also coincided with growing tensions surrounding specific procurement contracts linked to SAFE financing. Romanian media outlet Comisarul.ro reported that negotiations involving Germany’s Rheinmetall and contracts worth an estimated €5.7 billion have come under renewed pressure after the company reportedly sought to renegotiate contractual terms shortly before a European Commission deadline for signing SAFE-funded agreements.
According to reporting cited by comisarul.ro and defapt.ro, Rheinmetall had initially committed to significant local industrial participation in Romania but later requested revised terms, including a reduction in the planned level of domestic production localisation. The company is reportedly linked to several SAFE-funded procurement programmes, including tracked infantry fighting vehicles, maritime patrol vessels and diver intervention craft.
Romania’s Ministry of National Defence has publicly maintained that procurement procedures remain under evaluation and has indicated it will not accept contract conditions viewed as unfavourable to the Romanian state. Defence Minister Radu Miruță previously criticised attempts by defence suppliers to raise prices during negotiations.
“Although they had announced prices not long ago, only a few months back, because the period in which these contracts must be signed is narrowing, they have begun returning with financial proposals that are one-third more expensive,” Miruță said during an April press conference.
“I told you both at the Ministry of Economy and here that we will not negotiate with these companies with our hands tied behind our backs, ending up paying artificial prices simply because they feel there is money that the Romanian Army, the Ministry of Economy, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Ministry of Transport want to use,” he added.
According to Romanian government information cited by local media, the value of the planned tracked infantry fighting vehicle programme increased from an initial estimate of €2.98 billion to approximately €3.34 billion. Under revised arrangements, 232 vehicles would be acquired through SAFE for €2.6 billion, while an additional 66 vehicles and derivatives would be covered by future contracts estimated at €738.6 million.
Romanian authorities also reported price increases in naval procurement programmes. The estimated value of contracts for two offshore patrol vessels reportedly rose from €700 million to €836 million, while diver intervention craft increased from €57 million to €84 million.
At the same time, Romanian officials have emphasised industrial participation requirements linked to SAFE borrowing. According to reports, Rheinmetall ultimately agreed to a minimum production localisation rate of 40% at Automecanica Mediaș, lower than earlier expectations that approximately 60% of production would take place inside Romania.
The debate surrounding SAFE financing increasingly reflects broader concerns over fiscal sustainability and industrial sovereignty. Under financing assumptions cited by Socol, including an interest rate of around 3% over a 45-year period and a 10-year grace period, Romania’s total repayment obligations could approach €32 billion.
Additional macroeconomic concerns relate to public debt and budget pressures. According to Socol’s estimates, the SAFE borrowing package alone could raise Romania’s debt-to-GDP ratio by more than four percentage points while adding further long-term strain to public finances at a time of continued underinvestment in healthcare, education, research and innovation.
The controversy has also exposed a wider strategic dilemma for Romania’s defence modernisation effort. As SAFE negotiations continue, policymakers increasingly face questions over whether the country is building a sustainable domestic defence industry or primarily underwriting industrial expansion and employment elsewhere in Europe.
