Kathy Warden: faster B-21 Raider production could support larger future U.S. Air Force bomber fleet

Speaking on May 28 at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, Warden said faster production could give the Air Force more confidence in buying more than 100 B-21s. The service has so far committed to at least 100 aircraft.

“As we move through the completion of the test program and into production, we look forward to the opportunity to build these faster—and that’s the agreement that we have now come to with the Air Force—which also opens up the opportunity for [the Air Force] to potentially buy even more,” Warden said.

“That increased rate allows [the Air Force] to consider how they meet mission requirements, and how many aircraft they would want to build to do that,” Warden continued. “They are undertaking that analysis now, and certainly our ability to build faster is a positive factor in those evaluations.”

Warden’s comments come as the Air Force shows greater openness to expanding the B-21 fleet beyond its official goal of at least 100 aircraft. The service is also facing pressure from Pentagon leaders and lawmakers to reassess the number needed for future missions.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers in April that the Air Force will need “a lot more” than 100 B-21s in the future. Lt. Gen. David H. Tabor, the Air Force’s top planner, told lawmakers on May 13 that revised B-21 fleet numbers are likely to be outlined in spring 2027 as part of the fiscal 2028 budget proposal.

Congress may seek an answer sooner. A draft fiscal 2027 National Defense Authorization Act released by the House Armed Services Committee on May 26 would require the Pentagon to submit a report by December 2026 on how many B-21s are needed for nuclear and conventional missions.

The report would also have to assess whether more than 100 bombers are required. If so, it would need to estimate how long it would take to buy the additional aircraft.

Committee members wrote that they were “concerned” that the current plan to buy 100 B-21s “may be insufficient to meet the requirements of the National Defense Strategy.” They noted that the goal has remained unchanged since 2015 despite major changes in the security environment.

Senior national security leaders have also called for a larger B-21 fleet. Most recently, U.S. Strategic Command Commander Adm. Richard Correll told lawmakers in March that the Air Force needs 145 B-21s and said a second production line is being considered.

The B-21 is a sixth-generation bomber designed to carry both conventional and nuclear weapons. It features advanced stealth, data-sharing capabilities and open systems architecture for penetrating strike missions deep inside enemy territory.

The aircraft is expected to replace the aging B-1B Lancer and B-2A Spirit fleets in the 2030s. The Air Force is currently flight testing two B-21s at Edwards Air Force Base in California, and the first operational Raider is expected to arrive at Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota in 2027.

Northrop Grumman is building the B-21 at Air Force Plant 42 in Palmdale, California. The Air Force and Northrop have been working to increase production capacity.

In February, the Air Force said it and Northrop had agreed on a plan to raise B-21 production capacity by 25%. The effort uses $4.5 billion from the 2025 reconciliation bill known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”

Warden said in an April earnings call that Northrop is also investing $2.5 billion of its own money to strengthen B-21 production. She said most of that funding will go toward new facilities and will be phased in over several years.

Northrop reported a $477 million loss on the B-21 in the first quarter of 2025. The company said much of the loss resulted from production process changes intended to support higher-rate manufacturing.

“No program is going to be perfect, and so we had that ‘learning,’” Warden said. “It resulted in some rework, and we took that charge.”

Warden said she remains confident in Northrop’s ability to build the B-21 efficiently while reducing programme risk. She said the aircraft’s testing and manufacturing progress are giving the company confidence in its estimates.

“For a program of this size, complexity, and duration, this program is performing exceptionally well,” Warden said. “But any program of this size does carry with it risk, especially as you move into production for the first time.”

“But we are retiring those risks with each passing day. As the aircraft tests well, and we get through build processes, we are feeling very positive about our ability to continue to deliver on our estimates,” Warden said.

Source: Air & Space Forces Magazine.