The future of Europe’s defence will be decided on the factory floor [OPINION]

Why? Mainly, because of artificial intelligence. We all know from personal experience that AI is coming on leaps and bounds. Every month, AI seems to get better at writing code, generating images, developing new capabilities, and integrating with different software and systems. There are reports that some of the larger defence companies are developing AI systems able to control drones autonomously. This kind of technology had been used to control a Swedish Gripen fighter jet, and the jet has consistently outperformed human pilots – despite the fact that the physical aircraft hasn’t changed at all.

We are now living in a world in which software is becoming increasingly standard. In other words, everybody will soon have a sophisticated form of software running on their platforms. To a great degree, this nullifies the advantage that software might provide. If everyone has self-updating, AI-powered software, then everyone is in the same boat. This is why failing to recognise the importance of hardware is a mistake. Indeed, we’re seeing this in Ukraine: if software were the only factor that mattered, then everyone would be using the same drones. And that’s not the case. There is a material difference between, for example, the Quadcopter FPV used by the Ukrainians, and the Molniya-2 used by the Russians, which is made from plywood. But Ukraine is also using a wide variety of drone types, each of them adapted to different needs. That gives a major advantage.

As in so many cases, it’s best not to think in black and white. The wisest approach is defining the interface between software and hardware. If we want to build a robust military, one that will be effective today, tomorrow, and the day after that, then it’s vital that we build adaptable hardware that can be modified and upgraded as needs require. Europe should invest in boosting its manufacturing capacity so that it can do this. We don’t need to stockpile millions of drones if we can design, build, and improve drones at speed should a conflict erupt. In Ukraine, drone manufacturers are using 3D printers to manufacture drones at speed. True, this is because static factories quickly became targets, but it’s also a reflection of how important it is to be able to manufacture and iterate quickly.

NATO, then, fresh off the back of its annual summit in Ankara, must go beyond investing more and promising to invest more in what it has procured in the past , and start directing money towards production facilities that are kept in a state of readiness – not necessarily operating at full capacity of generating maximum profits, but in a condition to mass-produce hardware should the need arise. That is their value: being able to ramp up and ramp down production as required, but also having the flexibility to provide whatever battlefield commanders need.

This isn’t the whole story, of course. Among other changes, we need a radical overhaul of procurement, better communication between the military and industry, an end to favouritism and closed networks of established defence operators, and a willingness to support our Ukrainian allies and test European technology on the battlefield at the same time. But to say that hardware no longer matters, that software is the future of war, is a mistake, and one that leads to loss of human lives. The factory floor remains vital, and will decide the outcome of the next conflict.

About the author:

Dr. Robert Brüll is the CEO of FibreCoat, a German advanced materials company.