The Russia’s Futures project was conducted by Finland’s Ministry of Defence, Ministry of the Interior and Ministry for Foreign Affairs. It examines the implications of Russia’s development for Finland, Europe and the international system, identifying priorities that remain relevant across the scenarios.
“The project’s key conclusion is that Finland and Europe must prepare simultaneously for several possible futures for Russia,” said Ministerial Adviser Terhi Ylitalo, the project’s coordinator. “Russia’s development, as well as the broader operating environment, is shaped by the combined effects of multiple concurrent changes, crises and uncertainties.”
“Preparedness must therefore be based on the examination of alternative scenarios rather than on any single assumption about Russia’s future direction,” Ylitalo said. The study presents plausible alternatives without predicting which will occur or assigning probabilities to them.
Under Renewing Russia, the country becomes a pragmatic regional power seeking broader influence through competition, cooperation and incentives. Fading Russia describes a weakening regional power that remains outwardly defiant but loses influence and grows increasingly dependent on China.
The Imperialist Russia scenario envisages an authoritarian, expansionist regional great power that relies on power politics and achieves its main foreign policy objectives. Chaotic Russia describes a nuclear-weapon state engulfed in deep internal crisis that maintains violent, militaristic and risk-taking policies despite deteriorating capabilities.
The scenarios draw on 22 drivers of change and 14 key uncertainties identified during the project. The ministries said Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine had made the operating environment significantly more uncertain.
The analysis examines the persistence of great-power thinking, demographic pressures, economic and technological dependencies, climate change and the growing militarisation of security policy. It considers Russia within an international environment shaped by wider global changes and the decisions of other states and actors.
Containing Russian aggression and supporting Ukraine are among the measures the project considers important regardless of Russia’s eventual trajectory. Other priorities include stronger security and resilience, better Russia expertise and a greater capacity to anticipate developments.
The study also calls for safeguarding freedom of decision-making and strengthening economic and technological resilience. Managing climate and environmental risks, improving the European Union’s capacity to act and supporting the rules-based international order are further priorities shared across the scenarios.
The findings are published in Russia’s Futures, accompanied by an appendix examining the drivers of change across foreign policy, society, the economy, technology, the environment and military developments. The publications also include impact assessments and preparedness measures applicable to individual scenarios or combinations of them.
The Ministry of Defence coordinated the work, with dozens of experts, researchers and public officials participating in its different phases. Experts from all three ministries supported the project, which used foresight methods applied in preparing Finland’s Government Report on the Future.
The project follows Russia of Challenges in 2007–2008, Russia of Changes in 2011–2012 and Russia of Power in 2018–2019. Its results are available for others to use and develop in security analysis, strategic planning, policy preparation, national preparedness and international cooperation.
Source: Finnish Government.
