The new agreement follows a letter of intent signed on 17 November 2025 covering Ukraine’s possible future purchase of about 100 Rafale aircraft. That earlier framework also included eight SAMP-T/NG air defence systems and other weapons, including ammunition and drones.
Under the previous arrangement, Ukraine was expected to place orders gradually over a 10-year period. The latest roadmap appears to make the acquisition of the first Rafale squadron and at least one SAMP-T/NG battery more specific.
The roadmap is likely to include technical arrangements linked to the planned purchase. The announced delivery timeframe also suggests production slots may have been reserved on Dassault’s heavily loaded Rafale assembly line.
Financial questions appear to remain before a final implementing contract can be signed. Dassault generally treats an agreement as binding only once a specified advance payment has been made.
Countries supporting Ukraine recently pledged substantial financial assistance at a NATO summit in Ankara. However, those pledges may not yet have translated into concrete funds in Ukraine’s budget for purchases on this scale.
Earlier tranches of international assistance have already been used to buy Swedish Gripen fighters. Other financing options may still be under consideration, including loans from French banks.
The latest intergovernmental arrangements in Paris also covered the transfer of radars to Ukraine. They also included permission for Ukraine to carry out licensed production of selected French weapons.
The licensed production package covers AASM Hammer guided bombs for MiG-29, Su-25 and Su-27 aircraft. It also includes Aster-30 air defence missiles for SAMP-T systems and SCALP-EG cruise missiles currently carried by Ukrainian Su-24 aircraft.
The agreement marks another step in Ukraine’s effort to expand and diversify its combat aviation and air defence capabilities. It also points to a longer-term French role in supporting Ukraine’s missile, air defence and precision-strike requirements.
